Boxing 1/29/05 BEST BET

[boxlocks]

Gatti over Leija -500 BEST BET

This is a total mismatch. I played Leija over Bojado at +450 (posted at madjacks) due to Boj's lack of serious training. I won that bet but it was obvious that Bojado sustained an injury early in the fight and couldn't get off after that. Bojado was dominating and landing much bigger shots, hell he put Leija down in the 2nd round.

Gatti is bigger, stronger, and just plain better than Bojado. And Gatti's much bigger, much stronger, and extremely better than Leija. The -500 is a very soft line and it moved right after I played it...now at -535.

Bojado-Leija opened around -600

Gatti- Leija opened at -500 ???

We are getting a gift line here due to Leija's fluke win over Bojado. Anyone that saw the that fight knows exactly what I'm talking about. I saw an interview with Gatti and he says he will go right at the older Leija (38). That is the perfect strategy as Leija doesn't have enough power to keep Gatti off him.

Gatti has a 3 " height advantage, a 3" reach advantage, and a 6 year age advantage. After Gatti weighs in he will gain 15 pounds as usual and will be the much bigger guy.

Like I said this is a total mismatch as Gatti will walk right through Leija.

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

I think Gatti should, walk through him too, but Gatti gets himself into trouble all the time. I am maybe a bit biased, but I think Gatti is an awesome puncher. The only thing that keeps him from being part of the top guys, is the fact he has no defense... NONE. Never blocks a punch. Rarely ducks a head shot. I think it should be another quick KO, but who knows. If it gets into the 6th, and deeper, than Lejia can get to work. Maybe im paranoid because I want to see Gatti-mayweather and see Gatti catch him with a left hook

 

[GreenDoberman]

Gatti has had wars with fighters of lesser ability (Ivan Robinson, Mickey Ward). I think he will win, but no way I'd lay 5 to 1 on him.

 

[tonymontana+]

Gatti has had wars with fighters of lesser ability (Ivan Robinson, Mickey Ward). I think he will win, but no way I'd lay 5 to 1 on him.

- 500 is a lot. And this is not a sure thing, he will probably win but risking a dime to win 200 will get you killed in the long run imo.

 

[almly24]

Im sorry but if you cant see that Gatti has vastly improved since the Robinson days then you just dont have a sharp eye. He beat Ward in the 1st fight but got robbed and dominated him in the second and third. -550 is probably a little too high for me though too.

 

[boxlocks]

Line is already up to -720 and the fight is still over a month away, I knew -500 was a steal so I unloaded on it.

Gatti's lack of defense won't matter here because Leija can't punch a lick. He would have gotten rolled by Bojado and was down in the second round before Bojado suffered the injury.

 

[valdosta]

....

Im sorry but if you cant see that Gatti has vastly improved since the Robinson days then you just dont have a sharp eye. He beat Ward in the 1st fight but got robbed and dominated him in the second and third. -550 is probably a little too high for me though too.

He has smarter matchmaking. Gatti's not that improved, he just is being rode out for all the $$$ they can make off him. Also, Gatti was lucky the first fight with Ward wasn't stopped when he turned his back somewhat. A draw in that fight would have been fair, it was no robbery.

 

[HiloBoy]

Who has Gatti beaten? Always smaller guys? Ward a club fighter with heart. Dorin small over the hill. Joe Hutchinson decent but not experienced at the time. Gamache small over the hill. Leija another used small guy like all the others. When Gatti moved up he was a naturally bigger guy fighting in a small body. He was at his best when he used his boxing skill to beat Patterson years ago. But think about if Rudy Battle makes the right call and says the body punch Patterson hit Gatti with was legal(it sure was) that he called low I don't think any of us are talking about Gatti now.

 

[boxlocks]

My top 7 at 140

1 Tzsyu
2 Mayweather
3 Cotto
4 Harris
5 Hatton
6 Mitchell
7 Gatti

If Judah moved back down he would definitly be above Gatti.

Just thought I would let you all know that I don't think Gatti is a top level guy. IMO he would either get outboxed or KO'd by all of the above mentioned fighters. Fortunatly for me the strategic matchmaking continues and puts him in with another guy who can't punch at all and has no shot of winning a decision in Gatti's backyard.

 

[HiloBoy]

Give me your guys line on these Gatti vs Pryor, Gatti vs Arguello, Gatti vs Billy Costello. Who would you pick?

 

[hardcorecap]

I like the top 7 at 140, but I would put Gatti above Hatton and Mitchell. He hits too hard for those guys. Gatti is only second to Tszyu in punching power, and his great chin can keep him in fights. If he had some defense he would be even better. His lack of defense makes every fight all the more interesting. He showed vs. Dorin that his power can make tough fights on paper easy, and vs. Robinson and Branco, he showed that his lack of D can makes easy fights on paper very tough. He is a very big 140 pounder, and prob weighs 155 by the bell. All I know is he wil give anyone of those guys a tough fight. Might not win, but it wont be a cake walk for them.

 

[franks]

Agree with tony m. Laying heavy lumber can come back to bite a guy on the butt. The unthinkable can, has and will happen. I resigned myself not to lay anything over 3-1 odds. I see spinch also feels the same. The bookmakers absolutely love it when a huge chalk goes in the soup. It's your money and GL with your wager; we just say bet smart.

 

[HiloBoy]

Laying can be scary but De La Hoya vs Paez, Dorsey, Leija, Bredhall....Mosley vs Adrian Stone... Riddick Bowe vs Dokes and Ferguson many past Roy Jones fights all seem like stealing money at any price.

 

[hardcorecap]

Hilo, I totally agree. I layed a -220 in march on Nate Campbell. I figured he was too much for Peden. Well, the unthinkable happened. I always bring that up for people when they talk lock. But when you see mismatches, boxing is the best when you know alot about fighters. My favorites are Tyson, Mosley, Gatti, and Hopkins, and I can say that betting on them or against them, I havent lost. Hopkins -Allen 3, was really stealing money even at that price. I guess the best way is to just pick your spots when you are going to lay more than 3-1, or like some of the guys, just stay away all together. I think Gatti is a pretty safe spot here. He wants to cash in against Floyd in june

 

[boxlocks]

When I heard that Gatti was fighting Leija I told myself that if the line was -500 or less I would load up on it. I usually don't lay more than -350 but I really like this play so I jumped on it.

Line on Gatti is already up to -750, looks like the big players agree with me on this one.

 

[HiloBoy]

Now if he was fighting Bojado it might get interesting.

 

[boxlocks]

Adding

Gatti wins inside distance -130

Gatti wins in rounds 4-6 +585 small

Also playing...

Dieppa-Sanchez under 11.5 +220 small

gl bl

 

[boxlocks]

Copied this from my thread at the other forum...

Navarro-Kawashima
We had yet another contraversial decision when one judge didn't give Kawashima a single round while the other two judges had him winning the fight! The scores were 120-109 for Navarro, and 115-114 - 115-113 for Kawashima. The judges were from Canada, Mexico, and Thailand in that order (respectively). From what I've read Navarro beat the sh*t out of him and dominated the entire fight, thus the 120-109 scorecard.

Navarro opened at +110 and closed at -135, a lot of bettors lost money on the contraversial decision but they had to know going in that the fight was in Japan and Kawa had the belt. Most of the time the location, promoter, belt, and politics can have as much influence on the scorecards as the fight. Its sh*t like that, combined with sh*t like Judah-Corley, Agustus-Burtan, and Cambell-Peden (sorry gw) that makes me shy away from playing sides in boxing.

If I'm leery of playing sides in boxing, why would I play Gatti at -500 over Leija?
I'm glad I asked that question, and the answer is...

All of the possible influences I mentioned above are in Gatti's favor here. The fight is in his back yard, hosted by his promoter, with his belt on the line, and a big PPV fight with Mayweather hanging in the balance. Sound familiar? The difference between this fight and the DLH-Sturm fight is huge though. DLH was stepping up in weight and fought a bigger, taller, longer, and younger fighter who had the belt. And he still won due to the politics involved. In this case Gatti is the bigger, stronger, taller, longer, younger, and better fighter...AND he has the influence and politics in his favor...-500???
I had to load up on him! I think Gatti will stop Jeija in the early rounds but if not there's nothing to worry about. With everything on Gatti's side, there's no way Leija wins a decision here, even if he deserves it.

I read a preview of the Gatti-Leija fight in the most popular boxing magazine and noticed that they never mentioned Bojado's injury in the early rounds that kept him from throwing combinations. Nor did they mention that Bojado dominated the first two rounds before sustaining the injury. The writer let some truth slip out in the opening paragraphs by saying something like...'Gatti could overwhelm Leija with his size, power, and skill by the middle rounds'... but thats it. After that he tried to convince you that Leija is a dangerous opponent, he shouldn't be taken lightly, and this will be a very good fight. My point is...don't use these magazine articles to cap fights, they're just trying to promote the fight and create interest in boxing. I have no problem with that, just don't put your money on it.

Buddy McGirt was Bojado's trainer for the Leija fight so he knows exactly what Bojado injured when he twice whispered into his ear in the corner between rounds. McGirt knows that Bojado was dominating Leija prior to the injury and he knows Gatti will dominate him also. With a huge payday against Mayweather on deck, no one in the Gatti camp would let him fight Leija if they weren't positive about the outcome.

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

I agree Boxlocks, I think that Gatti will hurt him early, he hits to hard for most of the 140 lb fighters today. His lack of defense, which we know he really has none, could make it interesting. If this fight reaches the 6th round, things could start to change, as Gatti always gets tired at that point, bc he throws so many punches early. Then Lejia may get inside and go tow ork on the body. Gatti's body is really the only place you can hurt him, we have all see what shots to the head can do to him. Cut him, but not stop him. Gatti has gotten so big, im surprised he can still make 140. He should def over power him here. I may lay 500 to win 100, but I know that my boy is prone to cuts, and that always scares me. Good luck

 

[boxlocks]

Adding

Posted these at the other forum a few days ago...

Wonjongkam over 9.5 -120

Ouma -160

Gatti in rounds 1-3 +1000 small

gl bl